GRAINS
Sep 01 Corn
(7/15/01) "Bingo! Moves to 217 and springs higher to
234.25. Looking for slight retrace from the strong ascent."
(7/22/01) "Bingo again! Get retrace from the strong
ascent to the 253.50 peak on the 12th to close at 209 on the
20th. Looking for more retrace toward 201.76 support area."
(7/29/01) "Getting bounce to 220.50 but retrace bias is still
present."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Getting retrace back toward 209.25 low area and
looking for further sag toward 206 area."
(8/12/01) "Goes as far as 208.75 before firming in a reversal
bounce toward 222. Looking for stall however back toward 215
area."
(8/19/01) "Bingo. Get retrace to 216.25. Looking to
continue sag toward 209.75 area."
(8/26/01) "Get a pop to 219. However, looking to weaken
again toward 210 area."
(9/2/01) Continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
Sep 01 Oats
(7/15/01) "Bingo and how! We looked for a move to
115 plus and it rockets to 142.60! Looking for slight retrace
from the strong ascent."
(7/22/01) "Bingo again. We get our retrace from
the 144 peak to close at the 131.50 close on the 20th. Looking
to retrace - can go toward 124.74 area."
(7/29/01) "Get extension to as high as 154.40, however
is stalling and retrace bias is present."
(8/5/01) "Bingo! Get stall and sag big time with
drop back to 124.50 low and looking for further sag toward 120.80 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Drops to 124.50 low before
firming slightly but looking for renewed weakness."
(8/19/01) "Continuing as forecast."
(8/26/01) "Bingo. Continues to weaken to 127
low. Looking for slight retrace upward to 135.48 area."
(9/2/01) Get strong retrace upward to 143 high but looking to
stall and sag once again back toward 130-135 area.
Quick Links
Sep 01 Soybean
(7/15/01) "Bingo! Moves strongly to 496 and
through, rocketing to 525. Looking for slight retrace from the
strong scent."
(7/22/01) "Bingo again. Get retrace from the
strong .538 peak on the 17th to close at 488.30 on the 20th.
Looking for further retrace to the 475.37 support area and even
more."
(7/29/01) "Get bounce to 514.50, but retrace bias is
still present."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Getting retrace back to 485 low and
looking for lower sag toward 477.60 area."
(8/12/01) "Able to hold at the 485 low and we get a
reversal bounce back to 516.
Looking for sag again to low 500s."
(8/19/01) "Bingo! Sags back to 502.80.
Looking for further sag to 486.50 area."
(8/26/01) "Bingo. Goes exactly to 486.50 on 8/21
and then dives further to a 473 low. Will try to firm up but can
weaken further toward 462.50 area."
(9/2/01) Continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
Sep
01 Soybean
Meal
(7/15/01) "Bingo! Moves to 175 and further to
177.20. Looking for slight retrace from the strong ascent."
(7/22/01) "Bingo again. Get our retrace from the
179.50 high on the 17th to close at 166.90 on the 20th."
(7/29/01) "Get bounce to 176 high, but retrace bias is
still present."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Getting retrace starting back to
167 low and looking for further sag toward 166.80 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Goes to 166.60, however gets
reversal bounce along with other grains, going back to 172.70.
Looking for a stall again back toward 169 area."
(8/19/01) "Continuing as forecast toward 169.66 area."
(8/26/01) "Bingo. Moves back to a 169..20 close
and then goes even further to a 164 low. Will try to firm up
but under pressure to go further to 159.80 area."
(9/2/01) Do get firming up with short-covering to
169.20. However, looking for pop to stall and still downside
bias back toward 164.
Quick Links
Sep
01 Soybean
Oil
(7/22/01) "Bingo! Get our retrace from the rocket
ascent to the .1918 high on the 17th to a .1749 close on the
20th. Looking for more retrace back toward the .1666 area
support."
(7/29/01) "Able to hold at .1733 area before getting
countertrend bounce back toward .1835 area. The retrace bias
is still present however."
(8/5/01) "Bingo! Get initial rise to .191 before
dropping back to .1787 low. Looking for further decline toward
.1732
area."
(8/12/01) "Get a bounce back to .1910. Looking for
further extension upward toward .1982 area."
(8/19/01) "Unable to stretch beyond .1939 resistance and
begins a retrace. Retrace can take it now back toward .1799
area."
(8/26/01) "Bingo. Moves back strongly to .1799
support and further to a .1695 low. We can see it retrace
upward now toward .1790 area."
(9/2/01) Unable to muster any retrace and continues weaker to
.1665. Continuing weaker.
Quick Links
Sep 01 Wheat
(7/15/01) "Bingo. Moves strongly higher to 281s
and further reaching 290.50 high. Looking for slight retrace."
(7/22/01) "Bingo. Getting wild whipsaw with
weather concerns but overall get our retrace from the 295 peak this
week to a 283.25 close on the 20th. Looking for a tad more
retrace to 278.78 area but overall to stay strong."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Pulls back to within couple
ticks of 278.78 (276.50). Looking for more retrace toward
274.35 area."
(8/5/01) "Bingo! Get our retrace in motion
dropping strongly to 264.75. Looking for further decline toward
256.88 area."
(8/12/01) "Able to hold at 262 and getting reversal
bounce but look for it to stall again."
(8/19/01) "Still forming the bounce to take it back toward
273-275 area."
(8/26/01) "Bingo. Moves strongly higher to 275 and
even further to a 278.75 high. Looking for further upward
movement."
(9/2/01) Continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
MEATS
Oct 01 Feeder
Cattle
(7/15/01) "Bingo! Moves to within ticks of 89.85
(89.50 low on 7/11). Under pressure to edge lower but will try
and firm here."
(7/22/01) "Does continue to firm and getting some upside
bias now for another move to improve toward the 91 area again."
(7/29/01) "Unable to rise toward 91 area and instead
pitches along with Live Cattle to 88.45 low on the 27th. Can
drop lower toward 87.35 support area."
(8/5/01) "Able to hold above the 88.45 support and
firming to rise toward 89.88 again."
(8/12/01) "Unable to hold at 88.45 and sags to
88.40. Losing momentum and under pressure to sag further
toward 87.76 support area."
(8/19/01) "Get short-covering bounce to 90.05.
However, look for stall and sag again."
(8/26/01) "[We go to the Oct '01 contract] Bingo. Getting stall and
sag back to 88.85 low on Oct contract. Looking to go back
toward 88.22 support area."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Pulls back to 88.20 before getting sharp
short-covering bounce back to 90.15 area. Can move higher but
looking for pop to run out of steam again.
Quick Links
Oct 01 Live
Cattle
(7/22/01) "Bingo again. Edges to within a whisper
of 75 (74.925) before sagging to 74.20 close on the 20th.
Looking for more sag toward 73.80 area."
(7/29/01) "Bingo! Get major sag to 73.25 o 26th
and then even further to 72.65 on 27th. We have head and
shoulders top and can fail at 72.45 support and go even toward 71.53
area."
(8/5/01) "Bingo again! Goes to within a hair of
71.53 (71.525) before edging a freckle lower to 71.375.
Looking to try and firm from the strong selldown."
(8/12/01) "Tries to firm but losing momentum and
vulnerable to drop further toward 70.28 area support."
(8/19/01) "Get short-covering bounce back to
72.225. However, looking for stall and sag again."
(8/26/01) "[We go to the Oct '01 contract] Bingo! Get stall and fail.
Goes back to 72.925 low on Oct contract. Can go as far as
72.26
support area."
(9/2/01) Goes as far as 72.40 - continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
Oct
01 Lean
Hogs
(7/8/01) "[We now go to Aug '01 contract] Continuing as
forecast, peaking and looking for retrace to 68.20 area on Aug
contract."
(7/15/01) "Bingo! Retreats to close to 68.20
(68.68 close on 6/13)
and under pressure to continue lower toward 66 area."
(7/22/01) "Able to hold up at 68s. Will try to
firm here to move back toward 69.60s area."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Get pop back to 69.60 and
beyond, closing at 70.05. Can edge a tad higher but starting
to show stall indications."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Edging higher to 71.32 and can
edge a little higher still."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Moves higher to 71.88 and may
edge higher but is also in the process of stalling and looking to
retrace back toward 68.20 support."
(8/19/01) "Continuing as forecast - sag toward 69.80
area."
(8/26/01) "[We go to the Oct '01 contract] Getting
short-covering bounce back to 59.22. However, looking for it
to stall and sag again back toward 57.35 support."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Pulls back to 57.35 and further to 56.75
support on 8/30. Looking for little more weakness toward 55.82
area.
Quick Links
Feb 02
Pork Bellies
(7/22/01) "Holds up at 83.40 and get strong reversal
(and short-covering) pop back upward, gapping to 93 close on the
20th. Looking to move higher toward 95 area."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Moves higher to 95 and beyond
closing at 95.75. However, starting to get stall again and
looking for retrace back toward 90 area again."
(8/5/01) "Able to stay strong and reaches to
99.38. Can edge a little higher toward 100 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Moves to a 100.35 high before
stalling. We get a drop-and-pop, dropping to 94 low and then
popping back to 99.82. However, overall have retrace bias that
can take it back toward 90.23 area following the slight reversal
pop."
(8/19/01) "Getting retrace sag and stall occurring and
look to fade back to 91.55 area."
(8/26/01) "[We go to the Feb '02 contract] Getting
strength with a pop and an increase in upside bias. Can edge
higher toward 81.95 area."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Goes to 81.60 on 8/31. Can edge a little
higher.
Quick Links
FOODS
Sep 01
Cocoa
(7/22/01) "Holds up at 871 and makes upward pop again
toward the 979 resistance. Doesn't have a strong bias and is
likely to repel from that resistance again. However, if it
does close above it, we can get trend-change back toward 1000s area
again."
(7/29/01) "Unable to reach 979 again and therefore loses
steam and begins retrace back toward 889 area."
(8/5/01) "Able to hold at 908 Support and get some
firming. The upside bias is building and we can see a reversal
higher now from here back toward 1005.35 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo! Makes strong move back to 1005
on 8/6 and continues further to 1031. Looking to flatten
out now before firming a tad higher."
(8/19/01) "Losing steam quickly. Is readying to
drop back and can be sudden toward 969.63 area."
(8/26/01) "Making movement downward, on way to 927.40
and 869.63 still in play."
(9/2/01) Bingo! Closes at 927 on 8/31. Continuing
as forecast.
Quick Links
Sep
01 Coffee
(7/8/01) "[We now go to Sep '01 contract] Edging around
the 55 support level on the Sep contract. Upside bias is
gradually increasing and we should be near or at the base area."
(7/15/01) "Slightly losing ground trying to find a
base. 54 could be our support for this, we will see over next
few sessions."
(7/22/01) "Ver-r-r-y slowly stalling its decline and
forming a low gradual base."
(7/29/01) "Gets slight firm but then resumes sag toward
51 support and trying to get a base in."
(8/5/01) "Unable to hold at 51 and edging toward
49.50 - 50 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Drops to 48.10 low and still weak
and can go toward the 47.13 area."
(8/19/01) "Able to hold above the 48.10 support.
Upside bias is building as it gets strong one-day pop to 54.35. This positive for
a firming back toward 59.60 - 62.60 area."
(8/26/01) "Getting upward movement as indicated but
losing some momentum may only go toward 55 area."
(9/2/01) Basing along 50.50 support - continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
Sep
01
Orange Juice
(7/15/01) "Consolidating and we look for continued
higher movement to high 86.70 or more."
(7/22/01) "Bingo. Moving higher as indicated."
(7/29/01) "Only gets as high as 85.80 before getting a
pullback toward support at 79.50. Looking to try and firm
here."
(8/5/01) "Unable to hold at 79.50 and drops further
toward 76.57 support area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Drops to 76.57 support, poking
as far as 76 before settling at 76.10. Will try to form a
near-term bottom and an upside bias is
building for a reversal back toward the 79.38 area."
(8/19/01) "Is forming a near-term base and readying to
move upward back toward 79.55 area."
(8/26/01) "Getting our movement back upward as indicated
and can go toward 81.10 area."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Get as high as 85.50 before settling
back to 79.25. Can retrace a little further but looking for
overall higher.
Quick Links
Oct
01
Sugar
(7/15/01) "[We go to Oct '01 contract] Pulls back and stays above the 8.22 support
and getting indications of this being a bottom near-term."
(7/22/01) "Looking for overall firming despite the
slight retrace on the 20th."
(7/29/01) "Getting our firming as it closes at 8.49 and
firming for higher."
(8/5/01) "Loses the firming and drops to 7.80.
Will sag further as momentum has dissipated."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Drops to 7.55 low. This
should be bear-term bottom as upside bias now building for a
reversal back toward 8.01 area, closing the "gap down" of
8/1."
(8/19/01) "Get our reversal back toward 8.18 high before
retracing slightly. Looking to move higher again toward 8.26
area."
(8/26/01) "Continuing as forecast and can go to 8.58
area."
(9/2/01) After closing the "gap" as indicated on
8/12, pulls back to 7.74 support on 8/30. Upside bias
softening and support may not hold there, which can take it back
toward 7.60 again.
Quick Links
FIBERS
Oct 01 Cotton
(7/15/01) "Upside bias still present as it continues to
try and form a base here. Pulls back to 39.50 support and
retest of recent low. Will need to hold up in this area to
fulfill a base."
(7/22/01) "Continuing to get chopping as it forms a base
and the upside bias continues to firm. Look for base to form
and improvement back toward 42.60 and then 44.15 areas."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Starting move higher as
indicated - goes to 42.09. Continuing as forecast."
(8/5/01) "Getting slight retrace from the pop up but
overall to firm and resume upward."
(8/12/01) "Get the rug pulled out from underneath with
the USDA report. Can go to 37.52 and further to 35.66 area.."
(8/19/01) "Continuing as forecast."
(8/26/01) "Holding up at the 38 level which is
very possible for a reversal upward. Upside bias has built up
as well and we can see reversal pop that can be sudden and with
strength back toward 41.95 area."
(9/2/01) Continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
METALS
Dec 01 Gold
(7/15/01) "Consolidating and getting a build up in the
upside bias and, though a little soggy currently, we can see it firm back toward the 273
area after firming."
(7/22/01) "Forming a small sideways pennant and upside
bias is built up and we look for move to the upside out of the
congestion toward 273.50 area."
(7/29/01) "Losing the upside bias and momentum and
starting to edge toward 266.50 area."
(8/5/01) "Bingo., Retraces to our 266.50 and
further to 264.10. Getting base and bias building again for a
reversal upward back toward 270 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo! Get strong jump to 273.40.
Looking for extending the firming to close above 275."
(8/19/01) "Bingo yet again! Closes well above the
275 resistance, gapping to 279.30. Overall looking for
continued strength toward 283.34 area."
(8/26/01) "[We go to Dec '01 contract] Despite pulling back
slightly to 274.90, looking to
move higher as indicated toward 283.35 area."
(9/2/01) Continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
Sep 01
High Grade Copper
(7/22/01) "Upside bias still increasing but short-term
getting a downward sag that can take it to 68.40 support area.
However, looking to firm and to get our reversal as indicated."
(7/29/01) "Losing upside bias and drifting lower toward
66.80 area."
(8/5/01) "Holds just above the 66.80 support line.
Will try to form a base here and gain legs for a reversal."
(8/12/01) "Unable to hold and sags to 65.70 low.
Looking for further weakness toward 64.30 area."
(8/19/01) "Goes no lower than 65.60 and is positive for
a near-term bottom. Upside bias is mounting for a move back
toward 70.50 area. "
(8/26/01) "Readying to make the move toward 70.50 area
and can even go toward 72.40 area."
(9/2/01) Get to within striking distance of 70.50 (69.80)
before pulling back. Can have a pullback now toward 66.65
support.
Quick Links
Sep 01
Silver
(7/15/01) "Holding up above 420 support level,
getting an upside bias building up, and a slight firming on
Friday. Looking for higher toward 433.87."
(7/22/01) "Building the base for the higher move as
indicated."
(7/29/01) "The bias gets setback this week, and momentum
slows. Pressure is to edge down toward 415 - 419 area."
(8/5/01) "Able to hold at 420 and building base to
resume upward movement."
(8/12/01) "Loses ground to 412 support. Is under
pressure to edge lower still "
(8/19/01) "Able to hold at 412 support - positive for the near-term bottom. Especially
with upside bias
is now mounting, which can take it toward 433.90 area."
(8/26/01) "Despite slight settleback, is readying to move upward toward 433.90 or
better."
(9/2/01) Continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
ENERGIES
Nov 01 Crude
Oil
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Moves to 27.02 close on 27th.
Looking for continued movement toward 27.80 area."
(8/5/01) "Bingo! Goes to 27.80 high today and
closes at 27.62. Look to consolidate slightly but remain in
positive trend."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Moves higher in the trend to
28.10. Bumping up against the 28.40 resistance. Looking for continuing strength moving and
closing above the 28.40 and eventually 28.65."
(8/19/01) "Get strong setback to 27.55 support.
Loss of momentum is such that can take it lower to 26.30 area."
(8/26/01) "[We go to Nov '01 contract] Bingo! Drops back to
25.45 on Nov contract before getting immediate reversal pop back to
27.15 high and 26.91 close. Looking to edge higher toward
27.57 area."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Moves sharply higher to 27s and looking
for higher movement.
Quick Links
Nov
01 Heating
Oil
(7/15/01) "Getting a little more sag that could take
it to the .6860 support area. Looking for firming in that
area."
(7/22/01) "Edges to next support level (67) to initiate
the firming. Starts to rise with close at .6911 on the
20th. Continuing with firming."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Get move higher to .7161.
Looking for continued movement toward .7438 area."
(8/5/01) "Continuing as forecast."
(8/12/01) "Bingo! Moves to within a tick of .7438
(.7439). Looking for continued strength edging higher toward
.7627 and closing above
.75."
(8/19/01) "Get strong setback to .7030 support and
closes near that low. The loss of momentum is such that will
look for further sag to .6860 area."
(8/26/01) "[We go to the Nov '01 contract]
Bingo. Get sag to .7190 on Nov contract but get an immediate
reversal and pop to .7740 high and .7567 close. Looking to
edge higher toward .77s close."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Get strong move back to .77s-.79s.
Looking for a little higher movement.
Quick Links
Nov
01 Natural
Gas
(7/22/01) "Unable to hold as the upside bias weakens
this week. We can now see it drift lower toward 2.7849 area."
(7/29/01) "Able to hold at the 2.95 support and bias
reverse and starts to firm again. This is positive for a
near-term bottom. Holding further this next week will point to
higher movement."
(8/5/01) "Getting edging toward support at 2.92 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Goes to 2.92 support. Is under
pressure to sag lower. Holding up here would be very positive for
the base - as the reverse bias is building - and move to 3.32 area."
(8/19/01) "Bingo. Get firming and reversal pop to
3.468. Looking for little consolidation but overall to head
higher toward 4.0 area."
(8/26/01) "[We go to the Nov '01 contract] Get setback to
2.980 support. Can settle further to the 2.75 support area to
try and firm."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Settles back to 2.60 and can go to 2.425
area looking for firming point.
Quick Links
Nov 01 Unleaded
Gas
(7/8/01) "Bingo. We do get our to and through .70,
hitting .6990. However, as indicated in the mid-week email,
the 3-4 week outlook changed dramatically by Wed and we said we
would have a "pop shortly". On 7/6 we see a dramatic
pop to .7578. We look for continued rebound toward .78 - .7880
area."
(7/15/01) "Getting some consolidating flop and chop and overall looking for firming following the
retrace and consolidation."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Getting firming as indicated closing at
.7765. Moving toward .78 - .7880 area as per our 7/8 update."
(8/12/01) "Get strong setback to .7350 resistance.
Loss of momentum is such that look for further sag to .7248 area."
(8/26/01) "[We go to the Nov '01 contract] Bingo. Drops to
.6945 on Nov contract but gets strong pop back up to close at .7503. Looking to firm a
further toward .7622 area or more."
(9/2/01) Bingo! Moves sharply higher to .77s before
settling slightly to .7565. Looking for little higher
movement.
Quick Links
INDEXES
Dow Jones Index
(7/22/01) "Bingo. In the process of getting the
pop as indicated and moving forward into the resumption of stall and
sag. Rubbing up against the 10695 Resistance as noted.
Pattern very similar to the 5/16 pop which failed, only now at a
lower level."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Resumes stall and sag with
sell-off to 10204 low on 24th. Tries to rally but bumps off
the 50% retrace from the 19th-24th drop. Looking to continue
to try and effort higher in rally relief (toward 10500s) but doomed
once again to failure (10200s or more). This as we move into
the Aug-Oct 2001 period which we look to be the most dangerous
period to date."
(8/5/01) "Bingo! Goes to 10500s before going limp
again. Can sag a little more toward the lower end of the
channel (10200-10300). There can be another effort to try back
toward 10500s-10600s with the Fed's next cut this month, but overall
readying for another leg down in the very dangerous period ahead
(Aug-Oct)."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Moves as far as 10480 before
getting resumption of the sag to the lower end of the channel to
10197 low, breaching the recent 7/24 low. Though we did get a
pop upward on Friday with light volume, we remain in retrace
bias and can continue to retest the 7/11 low of 10121. Failing
it can take it back toward 10030 and even breaching the 10k level
once again. Again, we are in a tenuous pattern as we enter the
very dangerous Aug-Oct period."
(8/19/01) "Bingo. Retrace continues and is
retesting the 7/11 low of 10121, coming within a mere 60 ticks of it
at 10181. Retrace bias is still present and looking to breach
the 7/11 low and make its way back to 10030 and breach the 10k level
again and eventually retest the Mar-Apr lows. We are into a
very dangerous period (Aug-Oct) and we remind about our Critical
Stage Alert and the lower target series, as they are still
live. They are: 9896, 9607.50, 9107, and the outside chance of
the high 8000s (to 8870)."
(8/26/01) "Get to within 14 ticks of the 7/11 low before
getting a slight relief lift that can take it back to 10490 - 10521
area. However, the rally is doomed for failure as the overall
downward bias is still present."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Drops to within 9 ticks of our 9896
(9887.20 on 8/31) before closing at 9949.75. We have now
closed below 10k for the first time since 4/9. We continue
overall on our way to the next lower targets and toward retesting
the Mar 22nd low. (For longer-term outlook,
click Special Members Alert at top of page.)
Quick Links
Nasdaq Composite Index
(7/22/01) "We are into resumption of stall/sag and
retesting the recent 7/11 low."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Stalls and sags within ticks of
the 7/11 low of 1935 (hits 1939) before efforting higher in a relief
rally to just above the 2k resistance/support to 2023. Can
effort tad higher toward 2060s but is doomed to yet another
failure. This as we come into the Aug-Sep 2001 period, which
we see as the most dangerous period we have seen to date."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Closes at 2066. Can try to stretch
a little higher toward 2100 but overall readying for another leg
down in the very dangerous period ahead of Aug-Oct."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Isn't able to stretch but
instead edging down within the retrace pattern to breach our 1956
support to 1916 low, breaching the 7/24 and 7/11 lows - before
closing right at our 1956. We remain within the
retrace bias and can see it breach the new 1916 low.
Failing it can take it back toward 1860 support once again. We
remain in a tenuous pattern as we enter the very dangerous Aug-Oct
period."
(8/19/01) "Bingo! The retrace bias breaches the 1916 mark
and goes to the 1860 support as indicated (1863). We have now
breached all the previous lows going back to April 11th. We
have also "closed the gap-up" of April 18th. The
retrace bias is still present and we look to breach the 1860 support
and move back to retest the April 4 low of 1620. We are
into the most dangerous period yet of Aug-Oct, and remind that our
Critical Stage Alert continues and the lower target series is still
live: 1860, 1667.50, 1620, and the outside chance of 1539."
(8/26/01) "Drops back to new mid-term low of 1818 before
getting slight relief rally that can take it back toward the 2080
area. However, the rally is doomed to failure once again as
the overall downward bias is still present."
(9/2/01) Bingo. Drops lower going to 1833.65 low and
closing at 1843.17 on 8/31. We are now at the lowest close
since 4/10. We continue overall to move back toward 1770 and
the other lower targets on the way to retesting the 4/4 low.
Quick Links
Sep
01
S&P 500 Index
(7/15/01) "As indicated in the mid-week email, we looked for
slight pop starting Thursday and we did, taking it back to 1225.90
high. Also as indicated, we look for such pop to be limited
(can go to 1263 area) and to get resumption of stall and sag."
(7/22/01) "Bingo. Getting the slight pop as
indicated, however may not reach 1260s, and moving forward into the
resumption of the stall and sag."
(7/29/01) "Bingo. Get resumption of stall and sag
dropping to 1168.70, breaching the recent 7/11 low. Tries to
make another relief rally effort back above the 1200
resistance/support to 1209.70. Can effort tad higher (1240s)
but is doomed to failure once again (1190s). This as we come
into the into the Aug-Oct 2001 period which we look to be the most
dangerous period to date."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Get our tad higher, as far as
1232.50, before losing steam. There can be an effort to
stretch upward again toward 1240s but overall readying for another
leg down in the dangerous period ahead (Aug-Oct)."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Resists stretching higher but
resumes sag pattern, breaching 1200 support to 1171.50 low, moving
to retest the
7/24 low of 1168.70. We remain within the retrace bias and
failing that retest can take it back to 1150 support."
(8/19/01) "Bingo! Retrace bias takes it right back to
within ticks of our 1150 support at 1158.40. The retrace bias
is still present and we have breached all lows now going back to
4/10. We look for continued weakness and going back to retest
the lows of Mar-Apr. We are into the most dangerous period yet
of Aug-Oct. We remind that the Critical Stage Alert is still
in effect and our lower targets are still live: 1150, 1129.50, 1101
and the outside chance of 1074."
(8/26/01) "We get drop to new mid-term low of 1156, within 6
ticks of our 1150 lower target, before getting a slight relief rally
that can take it back toward the 1190 - 1214 area. However, the rally
is once again doomed to failure as the downward bias is still
present."
(9/2/01) Bingo! Drops back to close within a quarter of
a tick of 1129.50 (1129.30 on 8/30). We are now at the lowest
close since 4/10. We continue on our way toward retesting the
low of 3/22 at 1101 as indicated. (For longer-term outlook, click Special Members
Alert at top of page.)
Quick Links
FINANCIALS
Sep 01
Eurodollars
(7/8/01) "Get slight retracing upward this week, and may get
50% retrace of this recent sag, however overall looking to have
peaked at the June 96.39 high and looking for lower."
(7/15/01) "Getting slight retrace upward from the recent
dip. Looking for stall however."
(7/22/01) "Trying to rise, trying to close above
96.395 but struggling. Look for flattening/stall as indicated."
(7/29/01) "Bias to downside has softened up.
Looking for little higher movement before stalling out. Moving
toward 96.60 area."
(8/5/01) "Looking for little retrace before reaching
higher again as indicated last week."
(8/12/01) "Continuing as forecast."
(8/19/01) "Flattening out and we can see a slight sag
toward 96.43 area."
(8/26/01) "Starting the sag as indicated."
(9/2/01) Get short-covering rebound to 96.57 but overall sag
bias still present.
Quick Links
Sep 01 T-Bonds
(7/15/01) "Bingo. Have gotten legs and, with the
equities flop and chop, improves nicely to 10121. Looking for
continued strength near-term."
(7/22/01) "Big Bingo! Get nice surge to close at
10304 on the 20th. Looking to remain strong. Can seek
higher ground toward 10407 area."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Comes within a couple ticks of
10407 (10405) before pulling back to close at 10302, but not before
poking intraday to 10218. There is a retrace bias that can
take it to the 10218 area to close - and can have further weakness."
(8/12/01) "Get sharp reversal with the poor economic
news this week, jumping to a 10413 high. Will remain strong
near-term and can go to 10509."
(8/19/01) "Bingo! Goes to within one tick of 10509
(1508). Looking to remain strong near-term and going
toward 10522 area and the potential of going to 10600 area."
(8/26/01) "Bingo. Goes to within ticks of 10522
(10518) and looking for movement toward 10600 area as indicated."
(9/2/01) Bingo! Moves to 10606 on 8/29. Looking to
remain strong near-term.
Quick Links
CURRENCIES
Sep 01
British Pound
(7/15/01) "Getting retrace back toward 1.3884 but overall
after retrace is for
higher."
(7/22/01) "Big Bingo! Get strong pop higher
to our "1.42 area", closing at 1.4280 on the
20th."
(7/29/01) "Readying for retrace back toward 1.4122, but
overall remaining in positive trend."
(8/5/01) "Able to resist much retrace (1.4206), and
resumes positive trend to 1.4294. Looking for slight retrace toward
1.4178 before resuming higher."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Retraces as expected, going to a
1.4108 low before resuming higher. Despite slight retracement,
remains in positive trend. Looking to move higher toward 1.43s area."
(8/19/01) "Bingo! Moves smartly higher to high
1.43s and even to 1.4454. Despite any slight retracement
downward, remaining strong and can head toward 1.4529 area."
(9/2/01) Continuing as forecast.
Quick Links
Sep 01
Canadian
Dollar
(7/15/01) "Bingo. Pulls back to within ticks of
.6525 (.6532) and carries on to .6480. Though under pressure edge a little lower, will
try to firm here."
(7/22/01) "Succumbs to pressure and edges to .6477
close on the 20th. Still weak and looking edge tad further
toward .6444 area or more."
(7/29/01) "Able to hold at .6455 and begins ascension
toward .6545 area."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Moves right up to .6545 and tad
further to .6554 before retracing toward .6480 support.
Looking to continue to firm toward 6566."
(8/12/01) "Runs out of steam at .6551 and stalls toward
.6480 support again. Can fail at it this time and go back
toward .6455 area."
(8/19/01) "Get little pop but now failing again and
heading toward .6455 area as noted."
(8/26/01) "Bingo. Drops to the .6455 support area,
hitting as low as .6446, before reversing slightly. There is
an upside bias now that can take it back toward .6540 area."
(9/2/01) Bingo! Pulls back to .6441. Is still weak
and can edge lower.
Quick Links
Sep
01 Deutch
Mark
(7/22/01) "Big Bingo! Get slight dip on 17th
but shoots strongly higher to within ticks of .4426, closing at
.4450 on the 20th. Despite expected retrace to low .44s
support area, overall to remain strong."
(7/29/01) "Readying for retrace back toward .4410 area,
but overall remaining in positive trend."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Retraces but able to hold at
.4468 before resuming upward trend. Looking to move toward
.4529 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. moves higher to .4529 and
further to .4559. Can retrace slightly, but remains in positive trend.
Longer term
toward .46s area."
(8/19/01) "Bingo. Wastes no time in going to
.4687. Despite any slight retrace downward, overall remaining
strong and heading toward .4710 area."
(8/26/01) "Consolidating slightly but overall continuing as
forecast."
(9/2/01) Despite any slight retrace, continuing as forecast
higher.
Quick Links
Sep
01
Euro Currency
(7/22/01) "Big Bingo! Get slight dip on 7/17
but springs strongly higher to 87.04 on the 20th. Despite
expected retrace to support at low 86s, overall to remain strong."
(7/29/01) "Readying for retrace back toward 86.35 area,
but overall remaining in positive trend."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Only slight retrace to 87.16
before resuming positive movement toward 88.33. Looking for
higher toward 88.80 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Moves higher to 88.80 and
further to 89.17. Can retrace slightly, but remains in positive trend.
Longer term
toward 89.65 area."
(8/19/01) "Bingo. Wastes no time in going to 89.65
and beyond, gapping up and closing at 91.67. Despite any
slight retracement downward, overall remaining strong and looking to
head toward 92.55 area."
(8/26/01) "Consolidating slightly but overall continuing
as forecast."
(9/2/01) Despite any slight retrace, continuing as forecast
higher.
Quick Links
Sep 01 Japanese Yen
(7/15/01) "Bingo. Getting firming to .8153
high. Getting a little settleback, but looking for overall higher toward .8278 area as
indicated."
(7/22/01) "Bingo. Moving higher again to
.8197 and continuing as forecast."
(7/29/01) "Readying for slight retrace back toward .80
area."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Pulls back to .8014 before
firming. Looking for improvement now toward .8171 area."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Moves higher to .8170s and
further to .8239. Looking for additional firming toward .8396
area."
(8/19/01) "Bingo. Moves to high .83's (hits a
.8429 high). Despite any slight retracement downward, overall
looking for little more upside toward .85 area."
(8/26/01) "Consolidating slightly but overall continuing
as forecast."
(9/2/01) Despite any slight retrace, continuing as forecast
higher.
Quick Links
Sep
01 Swiss
Franc
(7/22/01) "Big Bingo! Get slight dip to
.5623 low on the 17th but then resumes strongly to upside to our
.5735 area and further to .58s before closing at .5797 on the
20th. Despite expected retrace to low .57s, overall to remain
strong."
(7/29/01) "Readying for the retrace back to .5688 - .57
area, but to remain in positive trend."
(8/5/01) "Bingo. Retraces but able to hold at .5772
before resuming upward moving toward .5861 and more. "
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Resumes upward closing within ticks of
.5861 (.5852). Can retrace slightly, but remains in positive trend.
Longer term back
toward .60s."
(8/19/01) "Bingo. Wastes no time in jumping to .60s (to
.6020). Despite any slight retrace downward, overall
remaining strong and heading toward .61 area."
(8/26/01) "Consolidating slightly but overall continuing as
forecast."
(9/2/01) Despite any slight retrace, continuing as forecast
higher.
Quick Links
Sep
01 US
Dollar
(7/29/01) "Readying for a countertrend bounce toward
118.75 area, but overall remaining in declining trend."
(8/5/01) "Bingo! Edges to within 4 ticks of 116.27
(116.31). Looking for continued lower movement to 116 and
more."
(8/12/01) "Bingo. Drops to 116 and more, closing at
115.42. It will try to firm but the bias is still weak to the
downside."
(8/19/01) "Succumbs to the bias and drops to 113.13. Despite
any slight retracement upward, is still weak and
bias can take it toward the 111.28 area."
(8/26/01) "Consolidating slightly but continuing to look
for movement toward 111.28 area and can go eventually toward the
109.80 area."
(9/2/01) Despite any slight pop, continuing as forecast
overall lower.
Quick Links
Return
To Top Of Page
Return
To Home Page
|
Important:
